The final session of the day at the #OptaProKonferenz is a panel featuring Elliott Williams (Brighton & Hove Albion…… 22 Mar

Head of OptaPro @BenMackriell follows up on @GregorydSam's FC 04 Schalke case study. Here Ben showcases how video a…… 22 Mar

.@GregorydSam shares two examples of where FC 04 Schalke win the ball back on the pitch depending on game-state. Pr…… 22 Mar

OptaPro data scientist @GregorydSam is presenting a case study on FC Schalke 04, focusing on game-state and style o…… 22 Mar

In today's second presentation, Steven Houston shares insights and lessons from his time at both HSV and Chelsea. H…… 22 Mar

In the opening presentation, Elliott Williams (recruitment analyst, Brighton and Hove Albion) provides examples of…… 22 Mar

Philipp Obloch (OptaPro Lead, Northern Europe) gets the #OptaProKonferenz underway. Welcome. 22 Mar

Today sees the second #OptaProKonferenz take place. Return. 22 Mar

Final preparations are being made ahead of tomorrow's #OptaProKonferenz in Cologne. Alaaf. 21 Mar

The OptaPro Blog

RSS Feed

Welcome to the OptaPro blog, featuring news and analysis from OptaPro's cutting-edge research team.

GUEST BLOG: Big-5 league scores: half-time and full-time

This paper by Drs Loïc Ravenel and Raffaele Poli of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the score of big-5 league matches since the season 2003/04, both full-time and half-time. The study includes 17,656 matches and highlights the specific profile of French Ligue 1.

Full-time scores

The ten most frequent full-time scores at big-5 league level represent over three quarters of final outcomes. This figure is up to 81.7% in France, while it is only 70.4% in Germany. This is mainly due to the significantly lower number of goals per match scored in French top division. The score 0-0 is the third most common result in France (11.1% of matches) but only the fourth most frequent in Italy (8.7%) and England (8.5%), and the fifth most common in Spain (7.2%) and Germany (6.7%)

Table 1 - Full-time Score distribution (%) (2003-2012)


Table 2 - Most common full-time scores (2003-2012)


Half-time scores

The higher propensity for attacking in the German Bundesliga is confirmed by the statistics on half-time scores. In Germany, only in 27.7% of matches no goals are scored during the first half. At the opposite end of the table, this proportion is 35.3% in France. In the latter country, top division teams score no more than a goal in the first half in 72.4% of matches. This figure is only 63.8% in Germany. The three remaining big-5 leagues find themselves between these two extremes: Serie A (67.9%), Premier League (67.2%) and Liga (66%).

Table 3 - Half-time Score distribution (%) (2003-2012)


Interestingly, despite the differences in their relative proportion, the five most frequent half-time scores are exactly the same in all big-5 leagues.

Table 4 - Most common half-time scores (2003-2012)


Score change between half-time and full-time

In more than three cases out of four (76.6%), the half-time score is not the same as at the end of the game. The highest probability of change between the five most frequent half-time scores is for 0-1 (80.5% at big-5 league level). Conversely, the least changes were measured for the score 0-0 (73%). This holds particularly true for French Ligue 1 (68.4%). The only league where 0-0 is not the half-time score with the least probability to change is the Spanish Liga.

Table 5 - Probability of score change between half-time and full-time (2003-2012)


Outcome change between half-time and full-time

If we look at the probability of change for game outcome (home win, draw, away win) at the end of the match compared to half-time, it is interesting to note that a change happens only in 43.7% of games. The final outcome changes in a majority of cases only when the first half result is a draw. Conversely, only 25.7% of home teams who are winning 1-0 at half-time do not win at the end of the game. This percentage is higher for away teams winning 1-0 at half-time, but remains relatively low (38.2%). This data shows the importance of scoring the first goal of a match.

Table 6 - Probability of match outcome change between half-time and full-time (2003-2012)


The greatest probability of outcome change overall was observed in Italy (45.4%). This is related to the fact that the Italian Serie A is the big-5 league with the highest relative proportion of goals scored in the second half compared to the first one. At the opposite end of the table is France, with only 41.8% of outcome change between half-time and full-time. This indicator reflects and confirms the lower ability of Ligue 1 clubs to score goals and change the dynamic of a match.

You can see more work from The Fooball Observatory by heading to their website.


Post a comment